Radar Technologies are Undergoing Major Transformations
In many ways the radar industry has seen drastic changes in the past decade. In the military field, the need for improved survivability, low probability of intercept and longer detection range has oriented the industry towards active antenna arrays using solid state technologies. Indeed, the possibility to use more integrated and lighter devices together with the advanced capabilities offered by multiple beam shaping and steering, for example, motivated the transition from vacuum tubes to solid state solutions.
In the automotive field, radars have now become standard equipment. Following more stringent test scenarios, two trends are emerging. One consists of moving forward with imaging radar capable of more accurately describing the scene in front of and around the car. The other is to increase the number of sensors around the car and coordinate it to improve scene perception.
In both cases, a strong emphasis on signal processing and computing is emerging, while cost issues particularly matter in automotive. Multiple questions have been raised about where to move the signal processing and how better to exploit radar sensor inputs. This will likely contribute to a major transformation of the automotive radar industry.
Nevertheless, one of the most game-changing evolutions is the potential acceptance of radar for human machine interfaces (HMIs) through penetration in consumer electronics, where cost, integration and resolution are most challenging. Here again, this asks a lot of computing and software. All these factors have induced strong technological changes in this market that was slow paced several years ago.
Significant Growth for An Already Large Market
Prior to automotive penetration, the radar industry was a huge, mature market. But today, it is expected to show a 5% Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) between 2019 and 2025. This is high given its large size and formerly slow growth. On the military radar side, which represents more than half of the total radar market, there will be a moderate 3% CAGR. This is in line with its mature dynamics and nations’ budget constraints.
On the other hand, the automotive market is expected to grow at an 11% CAGR, and the consumer market at up to 70% CAGR. This is due to the recent development of radar for the automotive market, and the nascent nature of consumer applications. These two fast moving markets are the radar industry’s growth drivers. The industrial radar market will suffer a decline at first. Nevertheless, new demand coming from building automation will dampen the losses and actually result in a 1% CAGR during the 2019-2025 period. The medical market is still in the incubation stage.
An Extremely Active Ecosystem - For Non-Military Related Applications
In the military field, the industrial landscape is well established. A few companies are exporting worldwide, such as Raytheon, Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumann. A multitude of local players also exist for obvious strategic reasons. Due to the very peculiar nature of this market, no drastic changes have been seen in the past years.
For non-military-oriented applications, on the other hand, the market is extremely active. The automotive market is today dominated by five players at the final module level, Continental, Denso, Bosch, Hella and Veoneer. It sees emerging players such as Aptiv, ZF-TRW, Alps, Hyundai Mobis and Panasonic and new entrants like Waymo coming in with innovative approaches. At the semiconductor level, the situation is very similar, with three players dominating the market, Infineon, NXP and STMicroelectronics. New entrants such as Arbe and Uhnder are offering disruptive approaches. The strong growth and market potential are attracting players from other fields, such as mobile phone industry companies like Huawei or Qualcomm. The perspective of a potential opening up of the consumer market is also motivating players like Infineon to look at consumer electronics and to try to adapt its approach to completely different dynamics.
In the next five years, thanks to the evolution of Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) and the opening up of the consumer electronics market, the non-military radar landscape is expected to move rapidly. In this report, Yole Développement looks at all hese different markets and offers its vision of technology evolution as well as the industrial landscape, while offering market forecasts for the 2010-2025 period.